In the last few weeks several proof-of-concepts of a COVID-19 tracing app have been proposed. The Dutch goverment even conducted a hackathon, but not with promising results.

I think one of the fundamental problems is that it is not clear what the actual problem is the app should solve. As Albert Einstein once said: “If I had an hour to solve a problem I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and five minutes thinking about solutions.” What I have learned during the time of conducting my graduation project is, that the more clear the problem statement is, the more easier it will be to find a solution to that specific problem.

It is unrealistic to assume that 70 - 80 % percent of the population always has the app activated. This number is needed to have sufficient input to trace everyone who catched the COVID-19 virus. …

Also, as Bruce Schneier points out, there are also two other fundamental problems:

  • False Positives: The false positive rate is the percentage of contacts that don’t result in transmissions, e.g. an app cannot detect walls;
  • False Negatives: This is the rate the app fails to register a contact when an infection occurs, due to errors in the apps location, or people who do not have the app.

https://perezbox.com/2020/04/the-open-web-is-dying/

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01264-1

In the end, the app won’t work, and people loose trust in technology and the government, as the promises made cannot be met.

Also, we must ask ourselves how such apps will play out in the future. Do we really want to force everyone who has some kind of virus to be traceable?